Predicting phenotypic and genotypic evolution given fluctuating selection

Esdras T

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Allele Frequency change at seasonal SNPs

Aims

  • Develop a polygenic model that accurately predicts genotypic and phenotypic evolution featuring fluctuating selection

Genome

Genome

  • Phenotype is the sum of all alleles’ effect plus random noise

Parameters

WF model with 5 replicates each having the following parameters:

  • Heritability: 0.1, 0.5, and 0.8

Parameters

WF model with 5 replicates each having the following parameters:

  • Heritability: 0.1, 0.5, and 0.8
  • Loci numbers: 1, 10, 70, 100, 300

Parameters

WF model with 5 replicates each having the following parameters:

  • Heritability: 0.1, 0.5, and 0.8
  • Loci numbers: 1, 10, 70, 100, 300
  • Standard deviations: 1, 2, 3, 4

Parameters

WF model with 5 replicates each having the following parameters:

  • Heritability: 0.1, 0.5, and 0.8
  • Loci numbers: 1, 10, 70, 100, 300
  • Standard deviations: 1, 2, 3, 4
  • Generation interval (GI): 10, 20, 30 (Linear changes)

Parameters

WF model with 5 replicates each having the following parameters:

  • Heritability: 0.1, 0.5, and 0.8
  • Loci numbers: 1, 10, 70, 100, 300
  • Standard deviations: 1, 2, 3, 4
  • Generation interval (GI): 10, 20, 30 (Linear changes)
  • GI: sinusoidal1 (20) and sinusoidal2 (5, 10, 15, 30)

Models

  • Neutral selection

  • Constant selection

  • Fluctuating selection(Linear & Sinusoidal)

Fitness Function

\[ \text{Fitness} = \exp\left(-\frac{1}{{\text{phenotype}}} \times (\text{phenotype} - \text{optimum})^2\right) \]

  • Optimum = mean(phenotype) ± nSD

Fitness Function

\[ \text{Fitness} = \exp\left(-\frac{1}{{\text{phenotype}}} \times (\text{phenotype} - \text{optimum})^2\right) \]

  • Optimum = mean(phenotype) ± nSD

Genotype file

Generation Position Frequency Effect
1 543033 0.99725 0.756542
1 652860 0.99155 0.221580
1 713875 0.98910 0.189974
1 774890 0.98090 2.506406
1 1006747 0.97920 0.333771
1 445409 0.97905 0.022710

Phenotype file

Generation meanFitness Phenotype Optimum
1 0.911877 109.5748 112.614
2 0.912294 109.5830 112.614
3 0.915522 109.6475 112.614
4 0.923517 109.8138 112.614
5 0.926507 109.8774 112.614
6 0.918121 109.7005 112.614

Alle Frequency (single plot FS)

Allele Frequency (single model)

Mean Allele Frequency (all variables)

Phenotypes (single plot FS)

Phenotypes (single model)

Phenotypes (all variables)